Copy of `Teachernet - Pupil Projection Guide`
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Teachernet - Pupil Projection Guide
Category: Education > Projecting pupil numbers
Date & country: 15/01/2008, UK
All local authorities use admission criteria when admitting pupils to schools. Parents can, however, lodge an appeal against pupil admission decisions.Â If their appeal is upheld, then the actual pupil numbers in some schools may exceed those planned.
The geographic area(s) in which the majority of a school's pupils live. Sometimes referred to as a 'school zone'.Â Pupils that live in a catchment area do not necessarily have an entitlement to attend the school. (see also zone)
A 'cluster' is a group of schools, normally geographically close together, and is subject to an initial projection of pupil numbers.
Pupils are banded together into a cohort defined by their age.Â For example, the cohort that is styled year 1 this year will be year 2 next year, and year 3 in two years' time.
Cross boundary flow
A pupil living in your local authority area, but attending another local authority's school is part of a cross boundary flow 'out' of the area. Pupils at your schools who live in other local authorities are part of cross boundary 'in-flows'.
Dedicated Schools Grant. It will provide for the same items that are currently resourced through the Schools Formula Spending Share within the local government finance system, and covered by the Schools Budgets set by local councils.Â The Schools Budget consists of delegated budgets allocated to individual schools, and a budget for other provision for pupils which local authorities fund centrally, such as some Special Educational Needs provision and Pupil Referral Units.
This is a year group made up of pupils who are starting in a school. For primary schools, the entry class is the reception class. For most secondary schools, the entry class will be year 7.
A school which provides (or 'feeds') another school with pupils who then undertake the next phase of their education.Â For example, a primary school may be the feeder school for a particular secondary school.
Only historical data are used when calculating a fixed average and this figure is used in each year of the projection.
Geographic Information System. Â Software that enables you to plot, analyse and view the addresses of individual pupils on maps.
Joint service approach
Where a number of organisations pool resources to provide a service they all need.Â For example, the Tees Valley Joint Strategic Unit provides a joint service to five local authorities in the north east of England and the GLA provides a similar service across London.
A linear trend matches a straight line to the historical data called a line of best fit or regression line. This can be plotted forward to give forward projections. Other types of trend line can also be fitted e.g. an exponential growth trend.
See also 'survival rate'. This is a measure of the net effect of natural pupil turnover from one year to the next, as pupils transfer to or from individual schools for a wide variety of reasons.
Planned admission number. The maximum number of pupils a particular school may admit.Â This figure may have to be adjusted following the outcome of appeals by parents against an authority's decision not to admit their child to the school of their choice.
Pupil level annual school census. The annual count of pupils attending each school.
When their child transfers from one phase to another (e.g. from primary to secondary), parents may specify, in order of preference, the schools they would like their child to attend.
The number of additional children expected to require schooling, following new house building. Normally this is expressed as a ratio of new children per school year per 1000 new properties.
The first year pupils usually begin infant school at the age of four.
This is a recalculation of the average for each of the projections, incorporating the projection for the previous year into the calculation and excluding data from the earliest year from the calculation.
Exercise to compare the sum of individual school projections with a separately calculated projection for the whole area and to adjust the individual projections up or down so the totals are equal.
When calculating a straight average, each year's historical data are given equal importance, whereas when calculating a weighted average, the greatest importance is given to data from the most recent year.
A survival rate is measure of the net effect of natural pupil turnover from one year to the next, as pupils transfer to or from individual schools for a wide variety of reasons. See also 'migration rate'.Â
The proportion of the identified pool of children likely to attend a particular school who actually do so; e.g. if 15 out of 30 pupils from a feeder school transfer to a particular secondary school, then the take-up rate would be 50%.Â See also 'up-take factor'.
The year pupils leave one phase of education and transfer to the next e.g. infant/junior, junior/middle, junior/secondary etc.
The proportion of the identified pool of children likely to attend a particular school who actually do so; e.g. if 15 out of 30 pupils from a feeder school transfer to a particular secondary school, then the take-up rate would be 50%.Â See also 'take-up rate'.
An average in which data from one or more years has a greater effect than other years. For example, a three-year average, weighted towards the most recent years, might be calculated as (2004/5 x 3 + 2003/4 x 2 + 2002/3 x 1) / 6.
The geographic area(s) in which the majority of a school's pupils live. Pupils who live in a particular zone do not necessarily have an entitlement to attend the schools there.Â See 'catchment area'.